CIA Declassified: Resistance of Thailand, Burma, and Malaya to Communist Pressures in the Event of a Communist Victory in Indochina in 1951
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE RESISTANCE OF THAILAND, BURMA, AND MALAYA TO COMMUNIST PRESSURES IN THE EVENT OF A COMMUNIST VICTORY IN INDOCHINA IN 1951 NIE-20 Published on 20 March 1951 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY The intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, and the Joint Staff participated in the preparation of this estimate. All members of the Intelligence Advisory Committe have given their concurrence to the Estimate. This paper is based on information available on 15 March 1951. THE PROBLEM To assess the will and ability of Thailand, Burma, and Malaya to resist Communist political and military pressures or outright invasion in the event of a Communist victory in Indochina in 1951. CONCLUSIONS 1. A Viet Minh victory in Indochina in 1951, if accomplished without the intervention of Chinese Communist forces, would result in increased intimidation and subversive activity directed against Thailand and Burma, but it would not necessarily...