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  NSC BRIEFING 17 March 1959 CHINESE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA I. Peiping began an economic drive in 1954 in Southeast Asia. Effects first really felt last year, but now, because of current pre-occupation with the "leap forward," moving ahead on its earlier momentum. Presents long-range threat of major implications for the position of the West in Southeast Asia. A. Chinese activity is dual-motivated: to make its growing power felt in Southeast Asia through economic relations, and to generate sterling, enabling China to finance West European goods essential to its own developmental program. II. China has a capability for a major trade assault which could disrupt several Southeast Asian economies. A. Rice sales to Southeast Asia, now totaling less than .005 percent of Chinese production, easily could be expanded with drastic effect on the economies of Burma and Thailand. B. Chinese rubber purchases, nearly 10 percent of Southeast Asian production, are shift...

NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE RESISTANCE OF THAILAND, BURMA, AND MALAYA TO COMMUNIST PRESSURES IN THE EVENT OF A COMMUNIST VICTORY IN INDOCHINA IN 1951 NIE-20 Published on 20 March 1951 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY The intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, and the Joint Staff participated in the preparation of this estimate. All members of the Intelligence Advisory Committe have given their concurrence to the Estimate. This paper is based on information available on 15 March 1951. THE PROBLEM To assess the will and ability of Thailand, Burma, and Malaya to resist Communist political and military pressures or outright invasion in the event of a Communist victory in Indochina in 1951. CONCLUSIONS 1. A Viet Minh victory in Indochina in 1951, if accomplished without the intervention of Chinese Communist forces, would result in increased intimidation and subversive activity directed against Thailand and Burma, but it would not necessarily...