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  SECRET Problem To assess the will and ability of Thailand, Burma, and Malaya to resist Communist political and military pressures in the eventnnof an early Communist victory in Indochina. SCOPE This paper will examine political, psychological, and military conditions in Thailand, Burma, and Malays in order to determine (a) to what extent these countries would be willing and able to resist political and indirect military pressures that would result from the establishment of Communist control in Indochina; (b) their capabilities for repelling actual military attack; (c) the possibilities for concerted action among them; and (d) the effect on these countries of large-scale employment of Chinese Communist armed forces in Southeast Asia, (Refer to Terms of Reference for NIE 20 issued by the Central Intelligence Agency 17 January 1951; only sections allocated to State/OIR are treated below.) QUESTIONS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM I. WHAT WOULD BE THE EFFECT IN THAILAND OF A COMMUNIST VICTORY...

23 June 1950 1. Although there is no evidence that the Thailand-Malaya border is being developed as a major line of communication with Communist organizations outside Malaya, it continues to present an obstacle in the Security Forces campaign against Communist-dominated terrorists in Malaya. 2. It is evident that Chinese are crossing the border from Thailand into Malaya almost continuously. Some of these are merely illegal immigrants going south with the monsoons, but under such cover Communists could also enter. Activity of this kind is expected to increase now that Hainan is in Communist hands. 3. Because of the absence of Thai coastal patrols and the laxity of her immigration authorities, illegal entry could be made into Thailand by boat and thence across the border into Malaya. * 4. It is now believed that some of the arms smuggled into Malaya come from Manila via Thailand. * Comment. The use of submarines would be an effective method of bringing Chinese to the ea...